Markets cooled off Monday after a hot start, but don’t let the midday fade fool you—beneath the political noise and tariff drama, the U.S. economy is quietly proving it’s tougher than it looks.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, while the Nasdaq, after flirting with a 2% rally, landed near the flatline. The Dow managed a slight 0.1% gain. Not exactly fireworks, but the resilience is telling.
So what happened?
Over the weekend, a glimmer of good news: consumer tech products like smartphones and laptops—core lifelines for companies like Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA)—were temporarily spared from President Trump’s latest tariff offensive. That sent Apple shares soaring early Monday, up as much as 6% before cooling to a still-respectable 2% by midday.
But then came the plot twist.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick muddied the waters Sunday, hinting that those same electronics might soon be hit with a separate wave of tariffs under the guise of national security. President Trump doubled down, saying there would be “no exception” for electronics and signaling a broader investigation into the entire semiconductor supply chain.
So yes, the market’s early enthusiasm fizzled. But here’s what most headlines won’t tell you: even with this back-and-forth chaos, the market hasn’t buckled. That’s not just resilience—that’s a signal.
Despite policy whiplash, the economy continues to churn forward. Last week was the market’s best since at least 2023, powered by an unexpected midweek surge after Trump slapped a 145% tariff on Chinese goods but pulled back on broader reciprocal duties. That rally wasn’t just relief—it was a reminder that Wall Street can still rally hard when the fundamentals line up.
And they are lining up.
Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year settling near 4.4%, and the U.S. dollar dipped against major currencies. That’s good news for global trade, U.S. exporters, and anyone tired of hearing that the only place to hide is cash. Investors are positioning carefully—not fearfully.
Even more interesting? Corporate America is beginning to beat expectations again.
Goldman Sachs (GS) delivered a strong earnings surprise, and analysts are watching closely to see whether this quarter marks the return of margin strength across the board. Nicholas Colas of DataTrek made a bold point: during bull markets, S&P 500 companies beat estimates by 6%. In the dark days of late 2022, that number plunged to 1.3%. Now? We may be on our way back up.
And here’s the controversial take: maybe it’s time to stop obsessing over tariff headlines. Yes, they move markets in the short term. But the real story is earnings, innovation, and an economy that refuses to roll over.
So while the talking heads dissect every Trump post like tea leaves, long-term investors are watching something else—profitability, consumer resilience, and a stock market that seems more bulletproof than it gets credit for.
The volatility isn’t going away, but neither is the strength underneath it.
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