Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the undisputed king of AI, adding $2.8 trillion to its market cap since 2023. Yet, despite its dominance, the stock is down 11% from its all-time high. Some skeptics argue that competition from China’s DeepSeek signals trouble, but let’s be real—Nvidia isn’t just a company; it’s the backbone of the AI revolution. And with its Q4 earnings report set for Feb. 26, we could be looking at one of the biggest stock surges of the year.
DeepSeek? Not So Deep After All
January’s Nvidia sell-off was driven by reports that DeepSeek trained a powerful AI model for just $5.6 million, a fraction of the billions spent by U.S. companies. The implication? AI companies might not need Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips. But here’s the flaw in that argument—DeepSeek’s model still relied on Nvidia GPUs and was nowhere near the scale of OpenAI or Meta’s Llama models.
More importantly, Nvidia’s top customers aren’t slowing down—they’re doubling down:
- Meta is ramping up AI spending to $65 billion in 2025, a 66% increase from last year.
- Alphabet plans a record $75 billion in capital expenditures.
- Amazon is projected to spend over $100 billion on AI infrastructure.
These tech giants aren’t just investing in AI—they’re betting their futures on it. And every single one of them is still buying Nvidia’s newest Blackwell GB200 chips, which CEO Jensen Huang describes as being in “insane” demand.
Wall Street’s Biggest Test: Nvidia’s Q4 Numbers
Nvidia has a history of proving doubters wrong, and this quarter could be its biggest flex yet. Analysts expect Q4 revenue to hit $38.1 billion, which wouldn’t just beat Nvidia’s own forecast—it would smash it.
And let’s talk about the real game-changer—full-year revenue. If estimates hold, Nvidia will report $129.3 billion for fiscal 2025, a jaw-dropping 112% increase from 2024.
But here’s where things get really interesting: Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $42 billion. If Nvidia beats that (and it probably will), then the entire DeepSeek-driven sell-off will look like one of the biggest overreactions in recent market history.
Nvidia Stock: The Most Undervalued “Overvalued” Stock
Some argue that Nvidia is expensive at a P/E ratio of 51.1, but that’s a 13% discount compared to its 10-year average. And when you factor in projected $4.44 earnings per share in fiscal 2026, Nvidia’s forward P/E ratio drops to just 29.2.
Translation? If Nvidia simply trades in line with its historical valuation, the stock could double this year.
Meanwhile, AI spending is fueling record job creation, unprecedented infrastructure investment, and a new wave of technological breakthroughs. Nvidia is at the center of it all, yet some investors still think now’s the time to be cautious?
Final Take: The Best AI Bet on Wall Street
The AI revolution isn’t slowing down—it’s going full throttle. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report isn’t just about one company; it’s a litmus test for the entire AI sector. If Wall Street gets caught flat-footed again, expect a massive stock surge that will leave skeptics scrambling to buy back in.
Feb. 26 is coming. Will you be watching from the sidelines—or riding the wave?
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